Where is OPEC in this crisis?
Sharon is “Thinking Ahead: Predicting the depression” at Casaubon’s Book today. For economic predictions she points us to The Automatic Earth. Ilargi’s “Debt Rattle” is today’s comment on how unstable Europe is, how the US actions are mere bluff and perpetuate the problems.
What I haven’t seen is what Saudia Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and other members of OPEC are doing. They hold untold amounts of American money. Hint: If they could fiddle with prices at $25 a barrel, and make money, then they made more money at $125 a barrel, because the holes in the ground are still holes in the ground. They may have reinvested, drilled new wells – but look at the immense sea-front developments at Dubai and tell me that they have ‘invested wisely’.
While Sharon and Ilargi sweat whether a taxpayer supported government owning part of their bank will prevent foreclosures (hint: This reminds of of a George Carlin skit about being stopped by a policemen – yes, we *will* be paying the government to foreclose on our homes), I wonder – what if the real reason is to prevent China and Iran and Venezuela from out-and-out buying our banks, our homes, our farmland – at fire sale prices.
What if the real crisis here is economic warfare by the oil-rich world? What if our national security is measured in bank assets and investment funds as well as brigades and warship task groups?
(Hint: After eight years of Clinton, and a Democratic Congress, ask yourself – how many new Navy ships have been commissioned to match the growing Russian, Indonesian, Chinese, and pirate fleets?)
Historically, wars have been fought to make money. You cannot mobilize a nation, an army or navy, without support of those likely to make money. It doesn’t happen. Defense, if someone’s fortune is threatened, that happens – but the other side expects to profit.
When we wail and gnash our teeth about home mortgages, we also need to stay aware of any military tensions – like Russia sending ships to exercise with Venezuela (they are on their way now).
I expect OPEC producers will set back, let the prices drop as far as they have to – but *dang!* I can’t see them sitting on all that money when land, housing, and business prices are dropping over here. No world leader will be able to resist meddling in such an an unhappy state of affairs.
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